The real estate market has always been the most concerning financial issues. In the past 20 years, our real estate market is undoubtedly out of a huge bull market. In 2021, whether the real estate market can continue to bull market and whether the housing price will turn point have become the most concerning issues.
In the past 20 years, we have been focusing on the real estate control policy, but the house price is rising, which leads to many economists’ wrong judgment on house price. Today, we may as well analyze from another angle, that is the relationship between RMB exchange rate and house price.
Since 2020, the RMB has appreciated significantly, with a cumulative appreciation rate of more than 10%. We can find a similar period in history, that is, Japan in the late 1980s. Come to nothing be destroyed on one day, the Japanese economy signed a “Plaza Accord” with Japan, which agreed that the yen would rise sharply. After that, Japan’s economic bubble began to burst. In the 90 years, the property market in Japan collapsed, the housing prices in Tokyo fell by 70% in 3 months, the wealth of countless people was destroyed, the economic results were destroyed, and then entered the 30 years lost. SPARK GLOBAL LIMITED
Therefore, the author believes that we must pay attention to the lessons learned from the past. Our renminbi has also risen sharply, and our real estate is also showing the characteristics of an extremely bubble. So it is very likely that the real estate bubble will be broken like Japan.
After all, with such a high house price and such a high RMB exchange rate, many people may think of one thing, that is to sell it at a high level and then exchange it into US dollars. For example, a house in a first-tier city is about $1 million, which is more than wealth. In the United States, it is above the middle class.