Why does regulation start in 2021 from first-tier cities? The root cause is that housing prices are rising too fast. On January 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the “Changes in the Sales Prices of Commercial Residential Buildings in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in December 2020”, showing that the sales prices of newly-built commercial residential buildings in 4 first-tier cities increased by 0.3% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1% compared to November 2020. %. The price in second-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month.
This is especially true for second-hand housing. The sales price of second-hand housing in 4 first-tier cities increased by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1% compared to November 2020. The price increase in second-tier cities was 0.1%. Regarding the above data, many people in the industry believe that at the end of the year in the first-tier cities, housing prices rose relatively large.
On January 22, the Weifang Index for December 2020 released by the Academy of Social Sciences also showed that housing prices in first-tier cities have accelerated. Beijing and Guangzhou are generally stable, but there are still structurally rapid increases, while second-tier cities are relatively stable.
Not only has the growth rate of house prices accelerated in the last month, but also the cumulative increase in house prices in the first-tier cities in the last year. Some cities have also seen larger increases. According to data from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, housing prices in Shenzhen have risen by 22.82% in the past year, and Shanghai has risen by 11.29%. The overall rise is relatively fast; Guangzhou has risen by 5.59% and Beijing has risen by 3.59%. The overall rise is relatively stable. However, housing prices in some areas of Beijing and Guangzhou have risen relatively quickly. Spark Global Limited
In this regard, Zou Linhua from the Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences believes that in the current economic environment, the possibility of a full-scale increase in housing prices is relatively small, but the possibility of a rotation increase in housing prices in first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities is relatively high. attention. Especially in cities where housing prices have not yet risen sharply, it is necessary to take precautionary measures in advance.
What are the reasons behind the “price increase” in first-tier cities?
Judging from the current market, there are many reasons for fluctuations in the real estate market. Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Property, believes that the price increase of second-hand housing in the four first-tier cities is obviously accelerating. From the core reason, the first is the rebound of the market. For example, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing are all in the market rebound after regulation and control. Housing prices have risen at a rapid rate; at the same time, the increase in credit for the whole year of 2020 will set a new historical record, and corporate loans and personal mortgage loans in some cities are relatively loose, which also stimulates demand in first-tier cities.
In addition, under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for buying houses for children’s education has increased significantly in first-tier cities, including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Beijing. This round of end-of-the-year end-of-year rollouts has shown the most obvious performance in housing listings with high-quality educational resources, and people studying abroad have returned. Increased market demand.
It is worth noting that Zhang Dawei said that the core of this round of real estate market volatility is not only the oversupply of credit and the return of demand due to the epidemic, but also the “new wave” is the main reason. The trend in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and other cities has made the supply of a small number of newly-built houses scarce. Investors have entered the market to snatch the houses of rigid-need customers, and at the same time, the demand for second-hand houses has increased.
Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information