Recently, Langfang Research Institute released the list of the second-hand housing market in China, with the shell Market falling by 4.8% this year. Dongguan has become the city with the strongest expectation of the owners, and the price increase of the second-hand house owners accounts for 62.9% Spark Global Limited It is worth noting that among the ten cities with the largest drop in the price of second-hand housing, except Zhongshan, Guangdong, the other cities are in the north and central and western regions. Among the top ten cities with the strongest expectations of owners, except Dalian and Xi’an, they are all in the South and the East, showing a pattern of “high in the South and low in the north”, “strong in the South and weak in the north”. The rising power of second-hand housing price in the south is obviously stronger than that in the north and the East are stronger than the West. So, why does this happen? Why do the southern and eastern cities have a more obvious upward momentum in the second-hand housing prices than the northern and western cities?
Obviously, it is closely related to the inflow of the urban population. In other words, cities with large population inflow and strong population mobility have a large demand for second-hand housing and rapid price changes. For example, Dongguan, Shenzhen, and Huizhou in Guangdong Province are cities with active population flow and large net inflow in recent years, while Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province and Nanjing in Jiangsu Province are also cities with large net inflow in 2020. Therefore, led to the rise of second-hand housing prices. On the contrary, in terms of population flow, northern cities are not as good as southern cities. The number of cities with net population inflow is less, and then the demand for second-hand housing is relatively less. The main factor causing the change of urban population is the development of the industry. Cities with well-developed industries and normal operation of enterprises have a large demand for the labor force, resulting in a net inflow of population, which in turn drives the price change of second-hand housing. Among them, Dongguan is the most typical city in Guangdong Province, which has a great influence on Industrial Development in recent years. Although it is difficult to compare with Shenzhen, the development momentum is also very good. Shenzhen has a strong radiation effect on Dongguan, and industrial transfer has a strong effect on Dongguan. Therefore, it also led to the second-hand housing prices in Dongguan. In recent years, the house prices in Hangzhou have been relatively strong, and the prices of second-hand houses have continued to rise, which is inseparable from the fact that a large number of investors in Hangzhou have settled in Hangzhou under the drive of Alibaba. The northern and western cities with less capital inflow and poor industrial development obviously lack the support of the floating population, so the price of second-hand housing is relatively stable, and the price of second-hand housing falls.
Langfang, Hebei Province, has become the city with the largest drop in the price of second-hand housing, which is related to the rapid rise of house prices in Beijing and the continuous rise of house prices in Langfang, which is regarded as a sub-central city, and the net inflow of foreign population, thus driving the prices of new and second-hand houses to rising continuously. The fact is that the basis of Langfang’s rising house prices is not real, and it does not have the conditions for sustained rising house prices. Therefore, since 2017, house prices have been in a downward channel, and until now, they have not fully digested the excessive rise of previous years. Qingdao and Jinan in Shandong ranked second and third in the decline of second-hand housing prices, which was also related to the rapid rise of housing prices in previous years, and now they are in the stage of housing price digestion. At the same time, affected by the industrial structure, the industrial development of Qingdao and Jinan is not very good in recent years, and the inflow of population is not very good, which also affects the price of second-hand housing.