In July this year, the transactions of new commercial houses (hereinafter referred to as “new houses”) in all line cities showed a downward trend. According to the data of China Index Research Institute, the transaction area of new houses in major cities monitored in July 2021 decreased by 14.30% month on month, and more than 80% of cities decreased to varying degrees, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.29%. Among them, the transaction area of the four first tier cities fell month on month, of which Shanghai fell by more than 30% and Beijing by more than 15%.
The experts interviewed by the Chinese reporter of the securities times and securities companies pointed out that in July, the real estate market transaction cooled down under the release of the effect of the regulation policy and the continuous tightening of the policy, which not only shows that some investment speculative demand is being eliminated, but also shows that the real estate market regulation has made positive progress under the two-way tightening of supply and demand, and it is expected that the subsequent market cooling trend may continue.
In July, the turnover of new houses in all cities decreased
Although the regulation on both sides of supply and demand in the real estate market has been increasing since this year, on the whole, new house transactions rose in the first half of the year. According to the data of Crees, the transaction area of new houses in 19 of the 21 major cities monitored by Crees increased year-on-year in the first half of 2021. In June, the trading volume of the new housing market increased both on the same and month on month basis. Among them, the new housing transaction area in the first tier cities increased by 36.84% month on month basis, and the new housing transaction area in Beijing increased by 100.43% month on month basis in June.
In the first month of the second half of the year, the transaction situation of the new housing market was “sudden change of painting style”. China Index Research Institute pointed out that the trading volume of new houses in the property market decreased month on month in July. In terms of cities, the transaction area of first tier cities decreased by 21.34% month on month in July, with a year-on-year increase of 7.12%. The transaction area of second tier representative cities decreased by 11.47% month on month and 2.54% year-on-year. The transaction area of the third tier representative cities decreased by 17.42% compared with the previous month and 26.01% year-on-year.
For the downward trend of new house transactions in July, Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, told the securities times that the current house purchase policy is oriented by tightening, and many factors, including credit tightening, have had some negative effects on the real estate market. Therefore, market transactions and other indicators have cooled down, which is basically in line with expectations. To a large extent, the change of trading volume also shows that the demand for investment speculation is being eliminated, and the downward market is expected to continue.
Shell Research Institute pointed out that in July, the transaction amount of residential land in 351 cities nationwide decreased by 51.55% year-on-year, the planned construction area decreased by 47.09% year-on-year, and the transaction floor price decreased by 8.42% year-on-year. The obvious decline in land transaction amount and volume is mainly due to the vacuum period of centralized land supply in 22 cities in July, which has a significant impact on the land market. Meanwhile, the land market was significantly affected by seasonal fluctuations in July. In addition, with the gradual tightening of policies, real estate enterprises are gradually cautious in taking land. As the 22 cities with centralized land supply are first and second tier cities, the market is hot. Therefore, the absence of land transaction in 22 cities participating in centralized land supply in July will inevitably lead to the decline of floor price.
In July, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen hit a record low
Among the four first tier cities that “led the decline”, the transaction area of new houses in Shanghai decreased significantly month on month, with a month on month decrease of 30.86%, but the transaction number and transaction area of new houses in Shanghai were 14527 and 1477400 / m2 respectively, which is still the highest in first tier cities. In contrast, the number of new houses sold in Shenzhen in July was only 2712, not only lower than that in June, but also the trading volume of second-hand houses in Shenzhen (hereinafter referred to as “second-hand houses”).
Pan Hongyu, a researcher at E-House Research Institute, pointed out that only 2557 second-hand houses were sold in Shenzhen in July, the lowest value except for the Spring Festival months since 2013. It also shows that the previous regulation effect of second-hand houses in Shenzhen was significant, making the second-hand housing market colder.
In addition, according to the analysis of the pre recorded online signing contract data on the real estate information platform of Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau, the online signing volume of second-hand houses (including self-service) in Shenzhen in the first week of August was 556, down 9.3% month on month, falling below the 600 mark for the first time.
According to the thorough statistics of shenfang China Association, since January to June 2021, the number of star employees registered with real names in the city has decreased by 11.8% year-on-year. In this industry survey, a total of 4161 stores were recovered, of which 104 stores have been closed and have been cancelled by industry and commerce, and 220 stores have been temporarily closed but have not been cancelled by industry and commerce.
However, Shenzhen Zhongxie pointed out that although there is a partial decline in the number of star practitioners registered with real names in the city, the total amount is still at a stable level. It is undeniable that with the continuous development of regulation and control, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen may still be in a downturn for a period of time. In the second half of the year, the competitive pressure of the real estate intermediary industry will continue to increase, whether it is the number of stores closed, closed and transferred, or the scale of employees leaving and changing careers, the whole industry should be fully prepared for this.
The China Index Research Institute expects that under the continuous and strict policy regulation of the Shenzhen property market in the second half of the year, the market transaction will be relatively more rational, and the first-hand and second-hand house prices will become more stable. With more residential projects entering the market in the future, consumers’ choice of house purchase is expected to increase, and the price of new houses will remain stable. The second-hand housing market remains cool and will continue for quite some time.