August 9 (Feng Fang) today (9th), the National Bureau of statistics will release the consumer price index (CPI) for July. Several institutions predict that CPI rose 0.8% year-on-year in July, and the increase will fall for the second consecutive month.
Source: website of National Bureau of Statistics
CPI growth may continue to fall in July
In 2021, the year-on-year increase of CPI changed from rise to fall in January due to the “wrong month of the Spring Festival”, and then rose for four consecutive months, rising from the negative growth at the beginning of the year to 1.3% in May. In June, the year-on-year increase of CPI turned to decline, reaching 1.1%. For the upcoming July CPI data, wind data shows that as of August 8, 18 institutions have made forecasts, with an average forecast value of 0.8%. Among them, the maximum predicted value is 1% and the minimum predicted value is 0.6%.
According to institutional forecasts, CPI fell year-on-year in July due to factors such as base effect. Societe Generale Securities pointed out that the year-on-year decline in the price of high-frequency agricultural products expanded, while the price of high-frequency pork stabilized. At the same time, considering the upstream price transmission, CPI may be stronger than seasonal month on month, and CPI may fall slightly year-on-year under the influence of base factors. Everbright Securities said that under the drag of the base effect, the CPI is expected to fall further to 0.7% year-on-year in July.
By item, several institutions mentioned that pork prices fell year-on-year, and food items were a drag on CPI. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, since early July, the overall market price of edible agricultural products has gradually changed from decline to rise. However, the meat price is generally in a downward trend, and the wholesale price of pork continues to decline. Specifically, the wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.6%, 0.9%, 0.6% and 1.1% respectively from July 5 to 11, July 12 to 18, July 19 to 25 and July 26 to August 1.
CICC said that food prices were still a drag. Affected by policy purchase and storage expectations, pig prices stopped falling and rebounded, but pork prices continued to fall and slowed down year-on-year; The supply of seasonal vegetables increased, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of vegetables changed from positive to negative year-on-year; The average wholesale prices of eggs and fruits slowed down year-on-year.
In addition, Shen wanhongyuan pointed out that since this year, the continuous release of pork supply and the obvious decline of pork prices have stabilized the upward range of the overall CPI. Huatai Securities also said that it is expected that the slight decline of CPI is still taking into account the drag of food prices.
In terms of non food items, the national economic research center of Peking University pointed out that non food consumer goods may be transmitted by the price of upstream raw materials, and the prices of non food items such as tourism and catering are expected to increase CPI. At the same time, affected by the increase of non food weight in 2021, it is expected that non food prices will continue to drive CPI to a certain extent in July.
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