In July, real estate enterprises suffered a Waterloo in sales for the first time this year. According to the newly disclosed data of the third-party organization Kerui Research Center, the sales of major real estate enterprises decreased significantly in a single month in July. Many enterprises, including several leading real estate enterprises, decreased by more than 35% month on month.
It is worth noting that the month on month decline in sales expanded compared with previous years, and also fell year-on-year.
Zhongda Securities Research Report also shows that the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved sales of 1004.1 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%, which is the first decline in the sales of the top 100 during the year. In addition, according to the data provided by Yihan think tank, among the top 50 real estate enterprises, the sales of single month in July fell year-on-year, and the number of real estate enterprises accounted for about 50%.
“This is the lowest monthly sales of the company in the past three years.” A young staff member of a real estate enterprise told China first finance and economics.
It is generally believed in the industry that the continuous release of high-pressure signals on the policy side has left buyers everywhere on the sidelines, which makes the sales of real estate enterprises quite difficult“ In the second half of the year, the overall situation is worrying, and living is more important than scale. ” This view has become a more consistent judgment of real estate enterprises.
Top 100 enterprises declined for the first time in a single month
The performance of rush harvest in June was poor, and the traditional off-season in July was even worse. According to the statistics of East Asia Qianhai securities, in July, the top 5, top 10 and top 50 real estate enterprises achieved sales of about 261.5 billion yuan, 380.5 billion yuan and 826 billion yuan respectively, down 23%, 29% and 30% month on month.
Yu Xiaoyu, research director of Yihan think tank, said that after the sprint in June, July usually enters the relatively off-season of real estate enterprise sales.
Among the top 10 real estate enterprises, in terms of full caliber sales, except that the sales of country garden increased by about 3% month on month, the other 9 decreased significantly month on month.
According to Yihan’s data, in July, Greenland holdings, China Merchants Shekou and CNOOC real estate achieved 23 billion yuan, 20.35 billion yuan and 25.79 billion yuan respectively, with the largest month on month decline of 54%, 54% and 50% respectively; China Resources land also decreased by 41% month on month; Evergrande and rongchuang’s month on month decline were also at a high level, 39% and 38% respectively.
Changes in sales growth also have an impact on the top 10 seats.
Country garden, which maintained the rising momentum, achieved sales of 74.4 billion yuan in a single month, reaching 500.8 billion yuan in the first seven months, ranking first in the industry and the only real estate enterprise with a total amount of more than 500 billion yuan; Vanke and Evergrande are still in the ranks of 400 billion yuan, ranking second and third in the industry.
Previously, rongchuang, with the highest monthly sales in June, achieved 49.1 billion yuan in July, ranking fourth in the industry with a cumulative sales of about 369.9 billion yuan. Poly Real Estate’s monthly sales in July were only about 7 billion yuan from rongchuang, but its cumulative sales fell behind by more than 40 billion yuan, still ranking fifth in the list.
The scope was widened to the top 30 real estate enterprises, and only a few enterprises achieved month on month growth in July, including five real estate enterprises, including Zhengrong, Rongxin, Longguang and jiazhaoye.
One of the insiders of a real estate enterprise that continued to grow in July said that the company’s monthly sales rose against the trend, which is related to the core cities such as the first and second tier of the project Duobu director triangle, because the overall market price in this region is relatively stable and the transaction remains active.
In fact, the month on month decrease brought by the off-season sales is not uncommon, but the top 100 real estate enterprises fell year-on-year in July, and the decline was more than expected, which surprised the industry.
According to the Research Report of Zhongda securities, the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved sales of 1004.1 billion yuan in July, down 7.6% year-on-year, the first decline in the sales of the top 100 in the year. Meanwhile, the sales area decreased by 16.4% year-on-year in a single month, showing a downward trend in May.
“Generally, the year-on-year growth rate of sales in the off-season will decline, but it is basically positive.” Yu Xiaoyu said.
Specifically, the performance of the top 50 real estate enterprises increased and decreased by half year-on-year. According to Yihan think tank, a number of real estate enterprises, including Shimao Group, sunshine city, Yajule, R & F real estate and capital real estate, fell by more than 20% year-on-year.
The monthly decline slowed down the overall sales growth in the past seven months. According to the Research Report of Zhongda securities, from January to July 2021, the top 100 real estate enterprises achieved sales of 8.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.6%, nearly 8 percentage points lower than the year-on-year increase of 37.5% in the previous six months; The sales area reached 542 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, which was also significantly narrowed compared with the year-on-year increase of 27.2% in the previous six months.
Analysts of open source securities expect that the growth rate of cumulative sales and sales area since the beginning of the year is expected to continue to decline in the future.
Promotion in the second half of the year may become the main theme
Faced with the fact that most real estate enterprises experienced both month on month and year-on-year declines in sales in July, an analyst who declined to be named said that last summer, market transactions rebounded strongly after the epidemic, and the transaction base in July was large; More importantly, since this year, the regulation of the property market in major cities has tightened, and buyers have fallen into wait-and-see again, resulting in a decline in transactions.
In addition, senior analysts in the industry said that the decline in sales of some enterprises was due to the lack of supply. According to the data of China Index Institute, in the first seven months, the total land acquisition of Top100 enterprises was 1805.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points; In addition, according to Yihan data, the threshold value of new goods of real estate enterprises in all echelons has decreased, and the thresholds of TOP10, top30 and Top50 have decreased by 6%, 16% and 19% respectively“ After the three red lines, the land acquisition has converged, and the supply has been relatively reduced. ”
However, insiders of a top20 real estate enterprise believe that the lack of goods is only one of the factors, and the more important is the policy impact.