In mid March 2021, Changchun took the lead in releasing the first batch of residential land supply plan, opening the prelude of the first batch of centralized land supply in 22 cities. As of June 30, 22 key cities had completed the first batch of centralized land supply, of which Changchun and Xiamen had completed the second batch of centralized land supply. However, based on many factors, the effect of “two concentration” policy on stabilizing land price and stabilizing expectation is not obvious. The soil auction heat of core tier 1 and tier 2 cities is still high, and Shanghai, Beijing and other cities are relatively good cities with relatively good regulatory effects. This paper will analyze the scale of the first batch of centralized land supply in 22 cities, the heat of land auction, the market characteristics and the land auction rules of the first batch of centralized land supply in Shanghai, and predict the possible adjustment direction of the rules of centralized land supply in hot cities, and provide reference for the enterprise investment decision.
Supply end: the first batch of centralized land supply in 22 cities is stable as a whole
Most cities have sufficient follow-up supply space
Table: time and scale of the first batch of land supply in 22 cities
Note: as of July 8, 2021, Tianjin has not published the land supply plan for 2021 and Shanghai has not published the land supply plan for 2020; Changchun and Xiamen completed the first two centralized land supply in the first half of the year;
Data source: comprehensive arrangement of the Institute
The planned supply volume of 22 cities in 2021 was slightly higher than that of last year, and the overall supply scale of the first batch of centralized land supply accounted for one third of the total supply of the three batches. From the perspective of planned land supply scale, except Tianjin and Shanghai, the total planned supply of 20 key cities in 2021 is 17393 hectares, an increase of 0.5% compared with the previous year“ The planned supply of beiguangshen is 2057 hectares, an increase of 11.8% year-on-year; The second tier cities plan to supply 15336 hectares, a slight drop of 0.8% year-on-year, which is basically the same as that of the previous year. The planned supply of residential land in Changsha, Suzhou and Chengdu increased by more than 40% year on year, and the planned supply in Ningbo was significantly reduced. From the scale of the first batch of centralized land supply, the total area of the first batch of land supply is 55.45 million square meters, accounting for 32% of the total planned supply of the three batches, but the proportion of the first batch of supply in each city is differentiated. Among them, the first supply proportion of Guangzhou, Changsha and Shenyang is more than 45%, while that of Shenzhen, Xiamen and Beijing is less than 20%. From the perspective of land supply rhythm, the first batch of centralized land supply listing and transfer of 22 residential land are concentrated in April and may respectively. Except for the centralized transfer of Fuzhou, Qingdao, Shenzhen, Xiamen and Tianjin on May 12-14, other cities generally adopt wrong time land supply.
Most cities plan to supply well in the second half of the year, and half of them are expected to focus on organizing the transfer in August and November. From the completion of planned supply in the first half of the year, the overall planned supply completion rate of 22 key cities in the first half of the year is 47%, up 8% compared with the same period last year. The overall supply area of the subsequent batch accounts for 53% of the total planned supply in the whole year. The supply space is still sufficient, but the city differentiation is obvious. Shenzhen, Beijing and Zhengzhou are cautious in the first batch of centralized land supply, and the planned supply completion in the first half of the year is relatively low. It is expected that the following two centralized land supply will be released, and the competition pressure of real estate enterprises is expected to ease; The last batch of centralized land supply in Changchun is expected to open in September, and the supply volume is less than the first two; Fuzhou’s first quarter supply volume, the first concentrated land supply accounted for 43%, the latter two supply will shrink. From the official release of the listing time of the subsequent batch centralized transfer plan, the listing time of more than half of the cities is concentrated in July and October, and half of the urban organization land transfer is expected to be concentrated in August and November.
Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information