Regarding the discussion of current housing prices, everyone has their own opinions. Regardless of whether they have bought a house or not, few people think that house prices will fall. Although the current real estate market is under strict control by all parties, except for a few cities where housing prices have fallen due to net population outflows and high inventories, the overall increase is still dominated. Therefore, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the authorities responsible for the regulation of the property market, have made frequent moves this year to cool the overheated property market.
Among the reasons that support the rise in housing prices, buyers have the highest degree of agreement. Major sales offices and second-hand housing intermediaries also like to say nothing more than three points:
1. Land is scarce, and the land used for residential construction in major cities is tight, and there will be no day-to-day supply. And the increase in land prices will surely drive the rise in housing prices.
2. Yang Mom releases water and buys a house to fight inflation. The March money supply data has not yet been announced, but the broad money (M2) balance in February was 223.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%. The growth rate was 0.7 and 1.3 percentage points higher than the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively Spark Global Limited.
3. The economy has rebounded very well. The manufacturing PMI in March was 51.9%, 1.3 percentage points higher than the previous month.
Yes, because land, currency, and economy are mutually positive, it is conducive to the preservation and appreciation of real estate. Therefore, the pace of buying a house has not stopped. Although relevant departments such as the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Ministry of Natural Resources have all introduced new control measures this year, some buyers are still not convinced that house prices may fall. It is really difficult to change the concept of real estate speculators without a full-scale decline in housing prices. Therefore, some people who want to speculate on real estate are still using various methods to obtain funds for buying houses.
For example, in the 21st Century Business Herald, a certain expert has successively exposed through his own channels “the clues of the Shenzhen Housing Management Group to defraud business loans for real estate speculation.” 102 shares of real estate speculation materials were exposed in one fell swoop. There is no doubt that these clues of violations will subsequently be effectively verified by Shenzhen.
In fact, after careful analysis, the three reasons that house buyers have in mind to support the rise in housing prices are actually untenable. Take land as an example. Although the supply of residential land is not enough, it has strict control over land prices. Especially since April this year, Beijing and Guangzhou have implemented a land price and house price linkage mechanism. A clear guide price was given to the selling price of new houses. From the point of view of Yangma’s release of water, despite a large amount of currency, funds must not flow into real estate in violation of regulations. This can be proved by the recent inspections of business loans carried out in various cities.
As for the economic recovery, is it beneficial to buy a house? Economist Ren Ze gave his thoughts.
Ren Zeping said in yesterday’s report that this round of global economic recovery may see a “K-shaped recovery”, benefiting a small number of people at the top of the pyramid, those who hold stocks and house assets. This means that not all people can get an increase in their disposable income from the process of economic recovery, which can support high-priced mortgages. The recovery is mainly to be better for the people on the spire.
Regarding the current housing price bubble, Ren Zeping said that this is the hardest bubble in China. The fundamental reason lies in the mismatch of people and land and the once currency oversupply. However, the problem of population aging will loom large in the next 5-10 years. To solve the real estate bubble, he believes that there is still a 10-year window to solve this problem.