I worked in Jiangsu a few years ago. In a small city in northern Jiangsu, I almost bought a house. After leaving for a few years, I paid attention to that city again, and I was completely shocked. Rather than being scared by that city, it is better to be scared by the housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities. This city is Huai’an, one of the “three poor” in northern Jiangsu. The data for 2020 has just been released, and the GDP barely exceeds 400 billion. It is uncertain whether it will be recalculated in the later period. . But this is not important, what is important is that his house price has rushed to 20,000-50,000. The price of a proper and strong second-tier provincial capital.
At this stage, the price echelon of this city is: There are about 10,000 suburban residences. Between 10,000 and 10,000 for high-quality communities. Between 20,000 and 30,000 for high-quality school districts. The old school district is between 40,000 and 50,000. Take a greenfield project that I personally saw as an example. The sales price of new homes in 2015-2016 was only 56,000 yuan, but the current average listing price is as high as 28,000! Third- and fourth-tier cities have been rising outrageously. We have always known about this, but some cases of such outrageous rises are really unexpected Spark Global Limited.
It can be said that after this wave of big cities rose sharply, the price hikes spreading to the third, fourth, and fifth-tier cities were not rational and restrained at all. It is not too much to say that many third- and fourth-tier cities have experienced growth rates that exceed those in first- and second-tier cities. We always do not recommend buying third- and fourth-tier cities. But the general rise of the third and fourth frontiers and such a case, I guess many people will be very confused about what to do with the third and forth frontiers.
I want to say that many things cannot just look at temporary results. Because the third- and fourth-tier property market is like stocks. Oh no, the entire property market is a bit like stocks.
The so-called “stocks”
Just like the stock market, when A shares rushed to 4000 points, at least 80% of the stocks are destined to have good gains in the previous six months or even a year, and it is commonplace to see red every day. The leading stocks are like the same-tier cities. No matter how small the fluctuation of Moutai, the total increase has never disappointed us, and it is creating a record high every year. In the liquor stocks, Wuliangye, Yanghe, and Luzhou Laojiao are obviously similar to the powerful provincial capitals such as Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Nanjing in China. They are the second in ten thousand years but are also very stable. If the boss increases, I will increase, and the boss does not. I may also rise.
The third- and fourth-tier liquor stocks are exactly the same as the third- and fourth-tier cities. Kouzijiao, Yilite, and Golden Seed have no performance, no reputation, and no real brand value, but they are blown to the sky by the east wind of liquor stocks. The same is true for the third and fourth-tier housing prices. There is no strong industry support, no demographic dividend, and no development potential. The rise depends on two words: one is demolition, and the other is speculation. By the financial environment, by inflation, by the east wind of first- and second-line rising, one step to heaven Spark Global Limited.
Therefore, I said that the entire property market is like stocks. High-quality cities are leading stocks and high-quality stocks. No matter how they consolidate, they are value-oriented in the end, and going higher is inevitable. The third- and fourth-tier cities are those who rely on external forces, rely on data modification, and rely on some special opportunities to list stocks: The demon gets up so that you love to hear and see, and you can’t stop it. Maybe someday all the way to ST, it’s so miserable. Therefore, many things cannot just look at the results of the moment, at the moment they are not sold, everything is data, and the long-term results are the real results!
Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information