This year, all localities are advocating “Celebrating the new year on the spot”, and the number of people staying in big cities has increased significantly, which has brought new changes to urbanization and the development of the real estate market.
100 million people celebrate the new year on the spot, bringing new opportunities to the property market
Generally speaking, economically developed cities with high-quality social public resources and good employment opportunities will form a strong attraction to the floating population.
Through sorting out the net population inflow of 42 key cities, we found that the top 10 cities with the largest net population inflow are Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing, Dongguan, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Foshan, Suzhou, Ningbo and Hangzhou, all of which come from the three major economic circles, including 4 in the Pearl River Delta, 4 in the Yangtze River Delta and 2 in Beijing Tianjin Hebei.
Among them, the net population inflow of Shanghai reached 9.5884 million, ranking first in China. Shenzhen ranked second with a net inflow of 7.9317 million. The registered residence population is 8 million 491 thousand, accounting for 63.2%. Beijing ranked third with a net inflow of 7.56 million people.
From a large regional point of view, the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei metropolitan area have the largest floating population. According to the “China’s floating population development report 2018” issued by the National Health Commission, the net inflow population of the Pearl River Delta in 2016 was 26.4797 million, accounting for 44.14% of the permanent population. From the perspective of the source of floating population, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration is dominated by inter provincial inflow. In 2000 and 2010, the inter provincial floating population accounted for 65.31% and 64.43% of the total. Hunan, Guangxi, Hubei, Sichuan and Jiangxi accounted for the top five.
The floating population of the Yangtze River Delta mainly comes from the three provinces and one city, such as northern Anhui and Northern Jiangsu, and a large number of migrant workers flow to Shanghai, Southern Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Beijing is the main gathering place of floating population in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region. About 49% of the total floating population in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region is concentrated in Beijing.
Zhengzhou, Chengdu, Wuhan and other cities in the central and western regions, as well as Xiamen, Qingdao and other places in the eastern region also gather a large number of migrant population, but these migrant population mainly come from other cities in the province, and the proportion of inter provincial migration is relatively low.
In previous years, when it comes to the Spring Festival, these big cities with a large number of foreign population have become typical empty cities, including the four first tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as the central cities of Dongguan, Foshan, Suzhou, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Chengdu and Zhengzhou, due to the large number of people returning home for the Spring Festival. But this year, this phenomenon is no longer. During the new year, these big cities are still very popular, with cinemas and scenic spots very popular.
According to the statistics of the railway department, the Ministry of human resources and social security and other departments, more than 100 million people will celebrate the Chinese new year on the spot this year. This year, there is a new term – yuannianren, which refers to people who spend the new year in the same place. Zhu Xiaoliang, director of the Consumption Promotion Department of the Ministry of Commerce, said at a news conference held by the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on February 10 that after preliminary arrangement, the number of people celebrating the Chinese New Year in 36 large and medium-sized cities in China this year has increased by more than 48 million compared with previous years.
These unexpected cities usher in new opportunities
A large number of original people not only drive the consumption of large and medium-sized cities, but also bring significant changes to the development of the property market during the Spring Festival. According to convention, the pattern of the property market during the Spring Festival is often characterized by “coldness in the first and second tier and exuberance in the third and fourth tier”. Among them, some hot cities often have zero transactions during the Spring Festival, and many new housing projects choose to suspend business. But this year, the property market in the first and second tier cities is not cold.
Take Beijing as an example, more than 60 projects in Beijing do not close for the Spring Festival. Because they do not go out of Beijing, many house buyers also use the Spring Festival holiday to see and select houses. Compared with the previous sporadic hot and mostly desolate developments, the number of customers received by most of the sales offices this year is close to the usual weekend.
This also continues the development trend of the overall property market since the epidemic in 2020, because the epidemic has a great impact on rental groups. Some epidemic prevention and control measures have a great impact on migrant workers, prompting more people to choose to buy houses in or near their workplace. In this context, the city with a large net inflow of population, after the epidemic, the demand for housing increased significantly. This year, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places along the southeast coast not only have large sales volume, but also the growth rate of sales area and sales amount are relatively high. The overall property market is relatively hot. This is also an important factor in the rise of housing prices in southeast coastal cities after the epidemic.
Experts pointed out that the epidemic has increased regional differentiation and accelerated the flow of people to economically developed regions. Therefore, it is necessary to speed up the construction of urban agglomerations and let small and medium-sized cities in urban agglomerations share some of the pressure of super cities and big cities.
In line with the trend of population migration, the overall sales of new houses in February exceeded expectations
On the other hand, with China’s urbanization rate breaking through 60% in 2019, China’s urbanization will gradually enter the second half and the second urbanization stage. Compared with the flow of population from township to city in the process of one urbanization, the second urbanization is the flow between cities, from small and medium-sized cities to central cities and metropolises.
In recent years, the trend of population gathering to big cities has accelerated. Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and other cities along the southeast coast, as well as Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Changsha and other cities in the central and western regions continue to rank among the top in population growth. With the rapid development of emerging industries in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Chengdu and Chongqing, population and capital are further concentrated in these regions.
Taking Chengdu as an example, the current high-tech industry in Chengdu is developing rapidly. In 2020, the number of high-tech enterprises in Chengdu will exceed 6000, and the operating income of high-tech industry will exceed one trillion yuan. In terms of population, by the end of 2019, there will be 16.581 million permanent residents in Chengdu, an increase of 251 000 or 1.54% over the end of last year. Among them, there were 12.3379 million urban permanent residents, with the urbanization rate of 74.41%, 1.29 percentage points higher than that at the end of last year.
To comply with this trend of population migration and speed up the pace of metropolitan area construction has become the focus of urban spatial layout at present and in the future. In terms of the property market, metropolitan area and urban agglomeration have become the focus of the development of the property market, and leading real estate enterprises have also focused on the layout of metropolitan area and urban agglomeration. The advantage of early layout is also transmitted to the actual performance.
Kerui data shows that from January to February 2021, the overall performance scale of top 100 real estate enterprises increased by 101% year on year. Leading real estate enterprises maintained a high growth rate, and the threshold of top 10 real estate enterprises’ sales trading amount was 34.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 147.8% year on year. In February of this year, country garden realized an equity contract sales amount of about 46.55 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 15.45% and a year-on-year increase of 122.52%; and realized an equity contract sales floor area of about 5.26 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 108.42%. From January to February, country garden realized a total of 86.86 billion yuan of equity contract sales, a year-on-year increase of 61.33%, and its advantage of “one to six line balanced layout” is gradually highlighted.
From the layout point of view, the land reserve of country garden has both breadth and depth. The extensive layout can disperse risks, and the deep focus is conducive to enhance the competitive advantage. In particular, the forward-looking deep layout of the five major urban agglomerations, such as the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, the Bohai rim, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, and Chengdu Chongqing, is well in line with the national major regional development strategy. Among the available resources, 98% are located in areas with permanent population of more than 500000, 93% in areas with population inflow, and 73% in five major urban agglomerations. Most of the distribution of goods volume is in line with the trend of population flow.
In fact, this is also a trend of the development of central cities and metropolitan areas in the future. From the perspective of industrial development, the central city and the central urban area have strong innovation ability, and the surrounding areas have labor force and manufacturing industry. The combination of the two promotes the high-quality development of the industry.
Speeding up the construction of metropolitan area is not only the objective demand of high-quality industrial development, but also the internal demand of optimizing urban spatial structure. With the development of big cities, especially mega cities and mega cities, in order to avoid the problem of big city disease, we must limit the scale of single city and not blindly “spread the cake”. In the spatial structure, we must optimize the layout, through the development of suburban new towns and satellite cities, strengthen the cooperation between the central city and the surrounding small and medium-sized cities, and realize the optimal and reasonable layout of industry and population.
For example, Hangzhou proposes to strengthen the function of the central activity area of the urban core area, speed up the expansion of urban high-quality resources to the suburban new towns, guide the population in the excessively dense areas of the urban core area to evacuate to the suburban new towns, and the new inflow population to gather to the suburban new towns, so as to effectively curb the disorderly spread of urban monomer scale and prevent the “pie spread” expansion.
In this process, suburban new towns and satellite cities will usher in good opportunities for development. In terms of the property market, due to the obvious price difference between the suburban New Town, satellite city and the central city, with the improvement of traffic conditions, especially the construction of rail transit, such as city railway and intercity railway, many peripheral satellite cities and the central city can be reached within half an hour. As a result, the urban boundary between the central city and the peripheral satellite city is broken, and the peripheral area is changed As a commuting area, it has become a “depression” and potential area for the development of the property market, attracting a large number of people to buy their own homes.
For example, there are hundreds of thousands of new and old Guangfo people living in Jinshazhou plate at the junction of Guangfo. The person in charge of the country garden Yunyue Jinsha project, which is located in the sector, told reporters that the passenger flow of the project during the Spring Festival this year has greatly improved compared with the epidemic situation last year. Jinshazhou plate from Guangzhou just need passenger spillover is very large. At present, the average price of Baiyun in Guangzhou is 50000-60000 yuan, Liwan is more than 60000 yuan, and Jinshazhou is still 20000-30000 yuan, which also gives Guangzhou customers more room for appreciation.
The person in charge of the project told the reporter that at present, Guangzhou rigid demand customers who come to buy houses pay more attention to the 3-4 rooms with an area of about 90-100 square meters. And country garden for just need products to high utilization rate of house type, not big but not small, and pay more attention to the quality of living and surrounding facilities.
Along with the economic development, population migration and the improvement of living standards, the product form of commercial housing has changed a lot. Take country garden as an example. After 29 years of development, this Guangdong real estate company has experienced several iterations from the initial multi-storey houses, and has seen the needs of different groups of people in the wave of urbanization. Now, it has divided its products into four types: Galaxy products with high cost performance, specifically for young rigid demand groups; government products built in Chinese style, aiming at improving the needs of families; and Galaxy products Equipped with cloud products of smart home, it meets the needs of young people to improve; it has mature supporting facilities and the ultimate house type, and it is the sky products for high-end improvement needs. The spillover from the first tier cities is not only the demand for house purchase, but also the demand for high-quality housing, which is driving the real estate developers to constantly improve their product strength to meet the needs of different markets and groups.
Hu Gang, President of South China City Research Association and professor of Jinan University, said that the area around the central city is large and the land price is cheap. After transportation, land development and industry will also increase. The relatively low housing prices in the periphery also help to attract people to settle down and further reduce the population density in the central area.
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Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information