The market didn’t wait for the peak season of real estate transactions.
The introduction of the second-hand housing transaction reference price is like pressing the “pause key” for the overheated Shenzhen property market. After the Spring Festival, the buyers and sellers of Shenzhen real estate market fell into a game, the real estate intermediary agencies encountered “special inspection”, and the turnover of the second-hand housing market nearly fell.
Shenzhen’s official determination to curb the “real estate speculation” has exceeded the expectations of the outside world, and a series of policies to block speculation and boost just demand are still increasing.
Recently, the Bank of Shenzhen has successively stated that the reference price is an important reference for housing mortgage loans, and Shenzhen’s investigation on illegal business loans entering the property market is also following up. At the same time, the new housing credit system is significantly inclined to the group of Shenzhen households without housing within ten years. The “patch” measures are proposed for fake divorce, and the new housing supply is increasing year-on-year. Speculators in Shenzhen’s real estate market are facing various dimensions of encirclement and suppression.
The move to eliminate the “false fire” in the property market is gradually implemented, and market participants generally believe that the property market is in a period of confusion, which is the product of the policy effect. The real demand for housing is only temporarily suppressed.
“Recently, there has been very little turnover in the property market, but many people have asked about it. If you are not in a hurry to buy a house, I suggest you wait and see. ” Huang Xiaohua, the person in charge of Longgang District, said that since the Spring Festival, he has failed to close a deal.
On February 8, Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau issued the notice of Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau on establishing a second-hand housing transaction reference price release mechanism (hereinafter referred to as the “2.8 New Deal”), which announced the transaction reference prices of 3595 residential areas for the first time, and officially implemented the “second-hand housing transaction price reference mechanism” in the second-hand housing market.
Judging from Huang Xiaohua’s more than ten years’ experience in real estate agency, it is expected that the property market will change from the overheated transaction last year to the game between the two sides.
In the face of the sudden regulation, the official websites of shell / chain home and other real estate agents in Shenzhen, app and other housing sources immediately did not show prices, and the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen also fell into silence.
On February 23, after the Spring Festival, Shenzhen Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued a notice on the special inspection of the application of second-hand housing transaction reference price of real estate brokerage agencies. According to the work plan of the special inspection, the inspection content of Shenzhen Bureau of housing and urban rural development mainly includes two parts: first, whether the listed price of second-hand housing released by real estate agents in stores, websites and relevant network platforms exceeds the reference price of second-hand housing transaction; second, whether the listed price of second-hand housing released by real estate agents through wechat, QQ and other network platforms exceeds the reference price of second-hand housing transaction Submit the reference price.
The special inspection is divided into two stages. The first stage starts on February 23 and ends on February 26; the second stage starts on February 27 and lasts for one month.
Huang Xiaohua, who always pays attention to the trend of supervision, immediately organizes the brokers of the stores to hang up the information such as “the reference total price of this set of houses” and “the government reference unit price of this community” on the company’s official website and app. Before and after February 26, the official websites, apps and other housing information of Shenzhen’s major real estate agents have appeared one after another, and the customer’s house purchase consultation, show and other activities have also begun to increase.
But the corresponding is the volume of the cliff down. According to the data released by Shenzhen real estate agency association, from February 22 to 28, there were 834 sets of second-hand housing online signs (including self-service online signs) in Shenzhen. Compared with the 2500 sets of weekly online signing data before the “2.8 New Deal”, the number of online signing decreased by nearly 70% after the new deal.
According to the data of leyoujia Research Center, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen transferred 4166 units in February, down 40.55% on a month on month basis, and the trading volume of the second-hand housing market nearly halved.
Bao Xiaoyang, a native of Shenzhen, who also noticed the trend of the property market, reduced the price of a second-hand house idle for sale by 500000 yuan compared with the market price because he was anxious to use money.
“The corresponding transaction reference price of this suite is 4.5 million, which is still at the market price level of 2018. Before the February 8 New Deal, my listing price was 6 million to 6.5 million, and now I plan to sell 5.5 million. ” Bao Xiaoyang told China first finance and economics that many prospective buyers would call to inquire about the actual transaction price. If it wasn’t for the lack of funds on hand, he didn’t plan to reduce the price at all.
A number of real estate agents told the first financial reporter that after the new deal, many owners chose to slightly reduce the price of houses due to the lack of obvious advantages of houses and the rush to collect funds. According to the report of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, in the last week of February 2021 (from February 21 to February 27), 33.0% of the owners’ quotations fell.
To the property market “false fire” tone significantly
When Bao Xiaoyang, a native of Shenzhen, who owns several real estate units, saw the introduction of the “28 new deal”, he was surprised at the speed of the regulatory policy, but did not expect that the financial regulatory side would follow up quickly. “The main reason is that the reference price of housing supply is generally lower than the market transaction price. At that time, I felt that the bank probably would not follow up the approval of housing loans according to this policy.”
But the market obviously underestimated Shenzhen’s determination to curb speculation. Shenzhen Industrial Bank, agricultural bank, China Construction Bank, China Everbright Bank and Ping An Bank all stated that reference price is an important reference for housing mortgage loan.
The most direct effect of tightening mortgage loans is that the leverage that buyers can use has become lower.
After the mortgage loan was strictly controlled, Shenzhen officials are following up on the investigation of illegal business loans entering the property market. The operation loans of individual banks in Shenzhen began to be priced at the reference price of second-hand housing transactions, squeezing the valuation bubble of mortgaged property.
In March 2nd, Guo Shuqing, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, said at the news conference of the new China office, “the core issue of the real estate sector is the bigger bubble, the stronger tendency of financial bubbles, the biggest grey rhinoceros in the financial system. Many people buy houses not to live, but to invest in speculation, which is very dangerous.” He also pointed out that “but the real estate finance bubble has been curbed. In 2020, the growth rate of real estate loans was lower than the growth rate of loans for the first time in 8 years. This achievement was not easily won and believed that the real estate problem could be gradually alleviated.”
Although more policies related to the financial end of the property market need to be clarified, more and more market participants are aware of the supervision will of “empty fire” from the capital end of the property market.
On March 2, Luohu China Resources Vientiane Washington and Jinshan mansion launched sincere registration at the same time. Among them, 40 points can be accumulated if there is no housing transfer record in Shenzhen within 10 years (including 2 years) and no housing under current name; 20 points can be accumulated if there is no housing transfer record in Shenzhen within 2-10 years (including 2 years).
The new house scoring system is inclined to the Shenzhen households without houses, which means that the scoring rules of Shenzhen “Da Xin” shortlisted have been changed, and the advantage of group points without houses has been significantly improved within 10 years. This has also directly blocked the speculative loophole that some investors sell their real estate or turn themselves into “people without real estate” in other ways, so as to obtain the priority of “new” market.
Earlier on February 20, Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau proposed a “patch” measure for fake divorce: if a couple divorce and register the real estate division to the party who is not qualified to buy a house, the other party shall not buy commercial housing in Shenzhen within three years from the date of divorce (if they remarry or remarry within three years, these Provisions shall also apply). This policy directly points to the speculative loophole of fake marriage and joint purchase.
The property market is in a wait-and-see period
Small loopholes have been gradually blocked, and Shenzhen’s property market regulation is becoming more and more refined, which is the consensus of all parties in the market.
On the one hand, a series of policies to suppress speculation in real estate have been followed up, and on the other hand, policies to tilt the rigid demand and play a role in the supply side of the real estate market have been introduced.
Take apartments as an example. On February 23, Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau issued a notice on the construction of gas pipeline facilities for business apartments and dormitories, giving the green light to the gas supply for business apartments and dormitories, which seems to default on the residential property of apartments. This is also interpreted in part by the market as the opening of the supply side of the property market to ease the shortage of housing supply.
Take the supply of first-hand housing as an example. According to the official website of Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau, in the first two months of this year, Shenzhen housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau approved 14 residential pre-sale permits and 6535 new houses, an increase of 5200 over the same period last year. According to the statistics of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, there are 13 new housing projects planned to enter the market in March in Shenzhen, including 10 new residential projects, with more than 5000 new housing supply.
The orderly increase in the supply of new housing has also partially diverted the demand of the second-hand housing market. According to the data of leyoujia Research Center, there are 3109 first-hand residential online signings in Shenzhen, down 62.8% on a month on month basis, but nearly tripled from last year, up 275%. Or affected by the second-hand market, more demand for new houses has been transferred.
In the face of the current situation of the property market, people in the market generally believe that the property market in a period of confusion is the product of the role of policy. The real demand for housing is only temporarily suppressed.
As of February 28, the inventory area of first-hand residential buildings in Shenzhen was 2.7139 million square meters. At present, the cycle of first-hand housing in Shenzhen is 5.1 months, a record low. According to the data of Leyou stores, the number of new customers increased significantly after the year, and the number of primary and secondary customers even exceeded the level before the year, indicating that the market demand still exists. Huang Xiaohua is not worried about the future.
As for when the short period of confusion will come to an end, he Qianru said that it is not easy to judge the wait-and-see cycle for the time being. In the past, the digestion cycle of policies was generally 3-6 months. But at present, due to the small number of second-hand customers, the bank’s implementation details are not very clear. “The first turning point, I think, is to wait until the bank’s policy is very clear before making the next judgment.”
A number of market participants expressed similar views.
“The bank’s attitude towards the closure of speculative profits from funds entering the property market is very clear. It only says that more detailed implementation methods, such as the reference price guidance range of second-hand housing transactions and the bank’s mortgage evaluation mode, need to be determined. Otherwise, good policy intentions will not be implemented.” A person in charge of a branch of a state-owned bank in Shenzhen said frankly.