On February 23, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the “Changes in the Sales Prices of 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in January 2021”.The month-on-month increase in the sales price of commercial houses in all the tier cities has expanded, with Shenzhen performing more prominently in the tier cities. On a year-on-year basis, the second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities increased by 9.6%. In terms of specific data, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in the four first-tier cities rose 0.6% month-on-month in January, 0.3 percentage points higher than the increase in the previous month. Among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose 0.5%, 0.6%, 1.0%, and 0.3% respectively. Second-hand home prices rose 1.3 percent month-on-month, 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous month. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen rose 0.9 percent, 1.3 percent, 1.4 percent, and 1.7 percent, respectively.
In 31 second-tier cities, both new and second-hand residential prices rose 0.4 percent month-on-month, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month. The sales prices of new commercial homes and second-hand homes in 35 third-tier cities rose 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month. In January, the sales prices of new commercial homes and second-hand homes in first-tier cities rose 4.2 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively, up 0.3 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. The prices of new commercial homes and second-hand homes in second-tier cities rose 4.1 percent and 2.5 percent year on year, 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, respectively. The price of new commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities rose by 3.3% year on year, 0.2 percentage points lower than last month. Second-hand residential sales prices rose 1.5 percent year on year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous month.
Xu Xiaole, the chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that the expansion of housing price increase in January is still mainly driven by the rising prices of second-hand housing in first-tier cities. Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Shanghai were the top four cities in terms of the month-on-month price increase of second-hand housing.This is highly related to the apparent warming of the second-hand housing market in the first-tier cities in January. Data from Shell Research Institute showed that in January 2021, the actual transaction volume of second-hand HOME LINK houses in 18 key cities increased by about 23% from the previous month, and the total transaction volume in the four first-tier cities increased by 29% from the previous month, and the absolute transaction level was at the highest monthly level since 2019 Spark Global Limited.
To this, Xu Xiaole holds an identification point of view. He said that in the first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, the boom of the secondhand shell housing market has leveled off or fallen from high levels since February, while the price of owners has gone down from rising. Under the influence of the introduction of intensive regulation and control in late January and the Spring Festival week, the market cooled down in February and the driving force of price rise weakened. In the longer term, 2021 is still a year in which the game between housing price rise and regulation intensifies. In general, the housing price increase will narrow compared with 2020. Regionally, according to the second-hand housing market climate index by the city in the first week after the holiday in February, housing prices in some cities along the Yangtze River, such as Ningbo and Wuxi, are still under great pressure in the first half of the year.
Reprint indicated source：Spark Global Limited information